Imagine Sherlock Holmes, with his double-brimmed cap and a magnifying glass, scouring an area for clues. “Evidence” might be the term used by modern criminal detective shows.
Arthur Conan Doyle emphasized how vital clues and indicators were to resolving a case and while that may be true, it is not always true or even apparent for preventing a case.
Ask any businessperson. They would rather prevent a theft or fraud than catch one, but a lack of evidence or clues does not mean that no crime has been committed.
Instead, finding clues and indicators of a loss or potential loss means that you have the opportunity to prevent future losses, if you interpret the evidence correctly.
Indicators also play a critical role in catching a thief in action. Neither Sherlock nor modern television detectives catch a criminal before or during their criminal activity to start their case. Instead, they follow the clues to prove who had committed the earlier crime. But business owners (particularly retailers) generally have to rely on indicators to detect who is stealing from them right now. This places an enhanced value on interpreting indicators.
We devote an entire section on how to catch a thief in action.
Indicators provide patterns of behaviour, often revealing either chronic problems or emerging ones. The types of indicators frequently show whether your thefts are by one-time, big-value thefts or regular, repeat thefts by regular clients, suppliers or employees.
Indicators, as well, show where thieves and fraudsters have identified opportunity or seen minimized risk of detection, apprehension or consequences.
The risk of consequences is more important than the risk of detection, if the consequences are sufficiently low or high.
The grab-and-run or smash-and-grab thief sees the reward of quick return on effort as much higher in balance than the consequences of his action, either because the court system is viewed as of no impact or because he sees that the business cannot implement a punishment that outweighs the reward.
Drug addicts, for example, see the immediate and necessary reward of committing a crime as far outweighing the consequence of someone spotting him or her and responding.
Regular customers interpret that the chances of being caught, or the consequences of petty theft are minimal.
Employees may have experienced a weak response to theft by others as an opportunity to steal, because they believe the employer will not react forcefully.
There is another value in tracking indicators like Sherlock. Thieves and fraudsters explore vulnerabilities, and it may seem that the dumbest customer or employee finds the most devious and creative ways to steal. This places these “savants” at the forefront of tracking potential areas of vulnerability, as they expose your business’s frailties and enable you to act before the problem is exacerbated.
Indicators, then, are in no way the weaker cousin of Motive and Opportunity in the MOI Inventory and should be regarded as valuable as the other two in protecting your assets.